What’s Happening in the Chittenden County Housing Market?
This month I am looking at Chittenden County only as I consider data from the Multiple Listing Service for single family homes and condos combined. I’m also looking at the 2022 market compared to 2023, year-to-date. In addition, I am comparing the month of November, year-over-year. The data points that I am focusing on are the number of homes sold, the median sales price, and median days on market until the seller accepted an offer.
In November of 2022, 142 homes sold compared to 108 in 2023 for a reduction of 24%. This is a significant reduction. The median sales price in 2022 was $441,500 compared to $481,000 in 2023 for an increase of 9%. Median days on market stayed flat at 6 days for both years.
In looking at year-to-date comparisons, in 2022, 1,678 homes sold compared to 1,349 in 2023 for a reduction of 19.6%. There just isn’t any inventory. And it hasn’t gotten much better in December. At this writing, there are 157 active listings available in Chittenden County in all price ranges. This includes homes to be built. The average list price on December 4 was a whopping $934,344! The median list price was $592,650. For buyers looking to spend less than half a million dollars, there is very little to choose from.
Looking at the time period of January through November of each year, the median sales price in 2022 was $452,000 while in 2023, it is $480,900 for an increase of only 6%. At the height of the market, we were seeing a 1% increase or more per month. Median days on market was flat year-to-date at 6.
What does all this mean when looking at the market? First, here’s one additional piece of information to consider: from November 25, 2023 to December 4, 2023, there have been 20 new properties listed in the MLS and 16 price reductions. All those price reductions came from homes that were on the market for 13 days or more. For a while, a seller could push a price up and still expect multiple offers. I think sellers are going to need to price their homes very conservatively in the coming months. While there is no inventory, I have talked to other agents who have listings that are seeing fewer showing appointments. Yes, there is often a natural slow down between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but a year-to-date increase of only 6% over last year indicates to me that the market may be softening.
We will want to see what the statistics are after year end and also after the first quarter of 2024. This will give us a better idea of what is happening in the market. I hope interest rates will drop and that the market gets stimulated, resulting in more people selling. If there are more sellers and lower interest rates, we should see an uptick in the number of homes sold.
Lawrence Yun, economist for the National Association of Realtors, shared his predictions in a November 15, 2023 article. He thinks interest rates will be down to 6-7% in the spring. Read the article here.
